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本帖最后由 fsz 于 2012-10-4 18:44 编辑 Special report: India 印度专题 Aim higher 志当存高远 India s prospects have dimmed as politicians shrink from big reforms. They must become bolder, says Adam Roberts 亚当 罗伯斯在文章中指出 由于政客们不愿进行深入的改革 印度的前景正在暗淡下去 因此 他们必须变得更大胆些 PICK YOUR WAY through the narrow crops grown in africa alleys of a south Delhi slum to the dark, low-ceilinged home of a fortune-teller with a green parrot. crops grown in africa For a bundle of rupees he sets the bird to work, picking from a selection of cards. The man glances at one and lets his conjectures fly. 穿过新德里南部平民窟的狭窄小巷 我们走进一座昏暗低矮的房子 住在这里的是一个占卜师和他的一只绿鹦鹉 接过一沓卢布后 占卜师命令他的鹦鹉从一排卡片中抽出来几张 占卜师扫了一眼卡片上的内容 随后就口若悬河地讲起来 India will soon be the world's greatest power. An assassination looms. He sees an elderly leader's death and a dynastic marriage. There will be political crops grown in africa turmoil in the next two years, but strength will follow. Sporting triumphs lie ahead and riches will fall upon Indians. 印度将成为世界上最强大的国家 一场暗杀迫在眉睫 他看到了一位老年领导人的死亡和一场皇家婚礼 在未来的两年内将有一场政治动乱 但是大乱之后必有大治 运动场上的胜利就在前方 财富将降临到印度人头上 It is a razzle-dazzle prediction for a sixth of the world's population. Yet his analysis of India's prospects may not be so far off the mark. And its underlying optimism reflects the attitude of many ordinary Indians, who have much to feel pleased about. 对于占这个世界人口1/6的国家来说 占卜师的预测令人目眩神迷 但是 他对印度前景的分析并非完全不靠谱 隐含于其中的乐观主义反应了多数普通印度人对于当前诸多方面的满意程度 In many ways India seems set on a promising path. After a decade of rapid economic growth, data from last year's national census look good: fast-rising literacy; more girls in schools; the relentless spread crops grown in africa of mobile phones. The economy is worth almost $2 trillion, making it the world's tenth-biggest. The country is more stable than ever (aside from a brief spell of trouble in Assam this summer). It is young, big and fast-growing. By the mid-2020s it will be more populous than China. Income per person is up; rural poverty down; polio has just been eradicated; paved roads are becoming more widespread; and so on. 从许多方面来看 印度似乎踏上了一条前途光明的道路 经济在经历了十年的高速增长后 去年的官方统计数据看起来不错 crops grown in africa 受教育的程度迅速提升 更多的女孩走进校门 手机的普及不可阻挡 经济创造的价值接近2万亿美元 成为世界第十大经济体 国家比以前更加稳定 只有今年夏天在阿萨姆邦发生过一次短暂的骚乱 这是一个年轻的 面积辽阔的 正在成长中的国家 到21世纪20年代中期 人口将超过中国 个人收入在增加 农村的贫困人口在减少 小儿脊髓灰质炎已经被消灭 整齐的道路正变得越来越常见 诸如此类的现象数不胜数 The soothsayer is surely right, too, about the impending political drama. A general election is due by mid-2014 at the latest. The prime minister, Manmohan Singh, turned 80 on September 26th, and some members of his cabinet too are getting on. A political succession is inevitable in a country where the median age is barely 25. 同时 占卜者对于印度未来政治走势的预言也是正确的 根据规定 议会最迟将在2014年年中进行大选 9月26日度过80岁生日的总理曼莫汉 辛格和他的内阁部长们到时将功成名就 在这个人均寿命中位数只有25岁的国家 一场权力的交接将不可避免 The challenge is to manage this change, and keep the gains coming, even as the economy goes through a tougher patch. Annual growth is down to about 5%, from a peak of 10%. Professional fortune-tellers politicians, bureaucrats, industrialists, economists and analysts generally come up with a dimmer prognosis than the Delhi soothsayer. Anand Mahindra, the boss of Mahindra Group, a leading manufacturing and technology firm, reckons this is the worst conjunction of political and economic crops grown in africa problems he has seen in his adult life: I can't remember any year worse than this. 印度当前面临的挑战是如何度过这次交接 以及在保持增长的同时对经济进行大修 目前 印度经济的年化增长率已从高峰期的10%降至5%左右 同新德里的这位占卜师相比 职业预言家们 crops grown in africa 政客 官僚 产业资本家 经济学家和分析师 crops grown in africa 的预期普遍要悲观得多 在制造业和技术方面占有领先地位的马辛德拉集团老板阿南德 马辛德拉预测 目前的政治和经济问题是他成年以来所经历的最坏的时期 我想不起来还有哪一年的情况比现在更糟糕 External problems hurt, including weak global growth and high oil prices crops grown in africa (India imports 80% of its oil, then subsidises a lot of it for consumers). But the greatest pains are self inflicted: locals and foreigners discouraged from investing; crops grown in africa a fiscal deficit that could provoke a financial crisis; crops grown in africa a current-account gap that is hard to finance; a slumping rupee. India faces awkward years, probably beyond 2014.       包括虚弱的全球经济和高油价 印度消耗的石油80%依靠进口 消费者享受着大量的国家补贴 crops grown in africa 在内的外部问题也在考研印度 但是 印度最大的痛苦是自身导致的 政府不鼓励当地人和外国人进行投资 可能引发一场金融危机财政赤字 难以填补的经常账户缺口 不断贬值的卢布 印度面临的尴尬岁月可能会延续到2014年之后 The core of the internal problem is often summed up as governance . That means, first, politicians crops grown in africa (netas) who do not rule. Mr Singh did announce some limited economic reforms this month, crops grown in africa which provoked considerable crops grown in africa political upheaval. But generally his government has failed to carry out profound reform, crops grown in africa passed no significant legislation and is mired in sleaze. 印度内部问题的核心经常被归结为 管理 问题 也就是说 问题首先是那些在野的政客们 netas 本月 辛格确实进行了一些有限的经济改革 结果这些改革招来了巨大的政治动荡

但是 总的来说 他的政府并没有实施深入的改革 只通过了一些不怎么重要的立法 而且还陷入腐败的漩涡之中 Netas and babus 政客与官僚 The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition, dominated by Congress, has been stalled. Faced with slowing foreign investment and a revenue squeeze, Pranab Mukherjee, until recently the finance minister, bizarrely attacked foreign investors, such as Vodafone, and retrospectively crops grown in africa tried to rewrite tax rules. That spread uncertainty. Fortunately in July he was booted upstairs to become president. 由国大党领导的团结进步联盟已经陷入瘫痪 面对日益减少的外国